Survey: Noynoy Aquino leads Philippine presidential candidates
A recent survey of voters in the Philippines on presidential candidates in the 2010 elections showed Senators Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino 3rd and his running mate Manuel Roxas 2nd would win by big margins, reported the Manila Times.
The survey conducted by Pulse Asia last month indicated Aquino, the Liberal’s standard-bearer, led all presidential candidates with 44 percent of Filipinos expressing support for him. Roxas, his vice presidential candidate, was preferred by almost four in 10 Filipinos—or 37 percent.
Far behind Aquino in the presidential race were Sen Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr (19 percent), Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero (13 percent), and former President Joseph Estrada (11 percent). In another survey conducted by the Social Weather Station (SWS), Aquino received more than a majority with 60 percent.
Pulse Asia said the clamour for clean governance was the top reason for Aquino’s strong support.
“The reason most-often cited in expressing a voting preference for a possible presidential candidate is [Aquino’s] clean public record or, alternatively, not being corrupt,” Pulse Asia said in a statement.
Aquino has recorded few political achievements during his 11 years in Congress. But he is immensely popular because of his mother, who led the “people power” revolution that ended dictator Ferdinand Marcos’s reign in 1986.
Across geographic areas and socioeconomic classes in the latest Pulse Asia survey, Aquino enjoys majority voter preferences in classes A, B and C (51 percent) and in the Visayas (53 percent).
Pulse Asia reported that “with Senator Aquino joining the presidential race, the other personalities who used to be in the lead experienced a decline in their voter preferences.”
“Between August and October 2009, the biggest drop in electoral support is recorded by Vice President Noli de Castro [minus 12 percentage points].”
The voter preferences of Villar and former President Estrada also declined during this period (minus 6 percentage points and minus 8 percentage points, respectively), according to Pulse Asia.
In the vice presidential race, Roxas led other possible candidates for the position: Sen. Loren Legarda (23 percent), Mayor Jejomar Binay of Makati City (13 percent) and Vice President de Castro (11 percent).
Roxas also topped in several geographic areas and socioeconomic classes (32 percent to 49 percent).
The Pulse Asia October 2009 Ulat ng Bayan national survey was conducted from October 22 to 30, 2009 using face-to-face interviews of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above.
The survey has a nationwide error margin of plus or minus 2 percent and regional margins of error of plus or minus 6 percent for Metro Manila, (plus or minus 4 percent for the rest of Luzon and plus or minus 5 percent for Visayas and Mindanao).
Saturday, April 10, 2010
2010 Presidential surveys
Noynoy tops survey on 2010 presidential hopefuls
By Helen Flores (The Philippine Star) Updated October 02, 2009 12:00 AM
MANILA, Philippines - Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III topped the latest nationwide survey on the 2010 presidential hopefuls conducted by Makati-based polling firm StratPOLLS Inc.
StratPOLLS is a sister company of dwIZ, Home Radio, Business Mirror and Graphic magazine.
The non-commissioned survey, conducted from Sept. 17 to 24, used face-to-face interviews of 1,500 representative adults 18 to 60 years old.
Aquino was the presidential bet of 36 percent of respondents followed by Sen. Manuel Villar with 20 percent.
Sen. Francis Escudero and former President Joseph Estrada were “statistically tied” for third and fourth places with 11 percent each.
Following Escudero and Estrada was Vice President Noli de Castro with seven percent.
Sen. Loren Legarda and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro ranked sixth and seventh place with five percent each.
Other presidential aspirants who were included in the survey were Sen. Richard Gordon (two percent); Jesus is Lord founder Bro. Eddie Villanueva (one percent); Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando (0.5 percent); and Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.5 percent).
The survey showed that Aquino received the highest votes across geographic areas and socio-economic classes.
In the National Capital Region, Aquino received 28 percent of the respondents’ vote; Villar, 21 percent; Estrada, 13 percent; Escudero, 11 percent; De Castro and Teodoro, nine percent; Legarda, five percent; Gordon, three percent; and Villanueva, one percent.
Fernando and Madrigal got zero votes in the NCR.
In the balance of Luzon, 36 percent chose Aquino; followed by Villar (18 percent); Escudero (15 percent); Estrada and De Castro (eight percent); Teodoro (six percent); Legarda (four percent); Gordon (two percent); and Villanueva and Fernando (one percent).
Aquino was also the leading presidential bet in the Visayas, receiving 44 percent of votes.
Villar was in second place with 26 percent; Estrada and Escudero, eight percent; De Castro, six percent; Legarda, four percent; Villanueva, two percent; and Teodoro and Gordon, one percent. Fernando and Madrigal again received zero votes.
In Mindanao, Aquino was picked by 37 percent of the respondents; followed by Villar and Estrada with 17 percent; Escudero, nine percent; De Castro, seven percent; Legarda, five percent; and Teodoro, three percent.
Gordon, Villanueva, Fernando and Madrigal obtained one percent each of the Mindanao votes.
Among the ABC class, Aquino received 24 percent; Villar, 19 percent; Escudero, 18 percent; Estrada, 11 percent; De Castro, eight percent; Legarda, four percent; Teodoro, Gordon and Villanueva, three percent; and Fernando and Madrigal had zero votes.
Among class D1, Aquino was favored by 36 percent; Villar, 20 percent; Escudero, 12 percent; Estrada, 11 percent; De Castro, seven percent; Teodoro, six percent; Legarda, four percent; and Gordon, Villanueva, Fernando and Madrigal with one percent each.
Among Class D2, 36 percent voted for Aquino, followed by Villar, 19 percent; Escudero, 12 percent; Estrada, 10 percent; De Castro, seven percent; Legarda and Teodoro, six percent; Villanueva, two percent; and Gordon and Fernando, one percent each. Madrigal got zero votes.
Among Class E or the masses, Aquino received 43 percent; Villar, 23 percent; De Castro, 16 percent; Estrada, nine percent; Escudero and Legarda, six percent; Teodoro and Gordon, two percent; and Villanueva, one percent. Fernando and Madrigal got zero votes.
Aquino was the favorite candidate among the respondents in the 18 to 35 age bracket, obtaining 35 percent of votes against Villar’s 20 percent; Escudero’s 12 percent and Estrada’s 11 percent.
The other presidential aspirants received less than 10 percent of votes.
Among the respondents aged 36 and above, 39 percent chose Aquino; 20 percent are for Villar; 11 percent for Escudero and 11 percent for Estrada.
The rest received less than 10 percent of votes.
In an eight-way race, the survey found that Aquino was still the leading presidential candidate with 37 percent of votes; followed by Villar with 19 percent.
Escudero and Estrada were statistically tied for third and fourth places with 11 percent each; followed by De Castro, seven percent.
Legarda and Teodoro were statistically tied for sixth and seventh places with six percent each; followed by Gordon with two percent.
In its survey for the vice presidential preference of Filipinos, SratPOLLS said Roxas was leading the race with 33 percent; followed by Escudero with 16 percent; Legarda, nine percent; De Castro, eight percent; Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, seven percent; Sen. Ramon Revilla Jr., six percent; Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, five percent; Sen. Francis Pangilinan, four percent; and Sen. Panfilo Lacson, three percent.
Other personalities included in the vice presidential survey were Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno and Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, who obtained two percent each; and Gordon and Madrigal with one percent each.
Meanwhile, the tandem of Aquino and Roxas received the highest votes of 65 percent.
They were followed by the teamup of Escudero-Legarda, 31 percent; De Castro-Teodoro, 26 percent; Legarda-Escudero, 25 percent; Villar-Estrada, 24 percent; Estrada-Binay, 22 percent; Villar-De Castro, 21 percent; Villar-Estrada, 20 percent; Villar-Escudero, 19 percent; Estrada-Escudero, 17 percent; Teodoro-Puno, 14 percent; and Villar-Sen. Pia Cayetano, 12 percent.
The StratPOLLS survey also found that a majority of Filipinos or 72 percent would vote for Cayetano in the senatorial election.
Cayetano was followed by Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, 64 percent; Muntinlupa Rep. Ruffy Biazon and Santiago, 59 percent each; Revilla, 58 percent; Drilon, 57 percent; Gordon, 55 percent; Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto Guingona III and Madrigal, 54 percent; businessman Joey de Venecia and former Sen. Ralph Recto, 53 percent; and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, 51 percent;
Former senator Serge Osmeña got 47 percent; former senator Tito Sotto, 42 percent; Ilocos Norte Gov. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Education Secretary Jesli Lapus, 39 percent; TV host Edu Manzano, 38 percent; former Cavite Rep. Gilbert Remulla, 37 percent; Akbayan Rep. Risa Hontiveros, 36 percent; Tourism Secretary Ace Durano, 35 percent; Grace Po-Llamanzares, 30 percent; Gabriela Rep. Liza Masa, 24 percent; Nacionalista Party spokesman Adel Tamano, 21 percent; and Bayan Muna Reps. Satur Ocampo and Teddy Casiño, 20 percent each.
By Helen Flores (The Philippine Star) Updated October 02, 2009 12:00 AM
MANILA, Philippines - Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III topped the latest nationwide survey on the 2010 presidential hopefuls conducted by Makati-based polling firm StratPOLLS Inc.
StratPOLLS is a sister company of dwIZ, Home Radio, Business Mirror and Graphic magazine.
The non-commissioned survey, conducted from Sept. 17 to 24, used face-to-face interviews of 1,500 representative adults 18 to 60 years old.
Aquino was the presidential bet of 36 percent of respondents followed by Sen. Manuel Villar with 20 percent.
Sen. Francis Escudero and former President Joseph Estrada were “statistically tied” for third and fourth places with 11 percent each.
Following Escudero and Estrada was Vice President Noli de Castro with seven percent.
Sen. Loren Legarda and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro ranked sixth and seventh place with five percent each.
Other presidential aspirants who were included in the survey were Sen. Richard Gordon (two percent); Jesus is Lord founder Bro. Eddie Villanueva (one percent); Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando (0.5 percent); and Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.5 percent).
The survey showed that Aquino received the highest votes across geographic areas and socio-economic classes.
In the National Capital Region, Aquino received 28 percent of the respondents’ vote; Villar, 21 percent; Estrada, 13 percent; Escudero, 11 percent; De Castro and Teodoro, nine percent; Legarda, five percent; Gordon, three percent; and Villanueva, one percent.
Fernando and Madrigal got zero votes in the NCR.
In the balance of Luzon, 36 percent chose Aquino; followed by Villar (18 percent); Escudero (15 percent); Estrada and De Castro (eight percent); Teodoro (six percent); Legarda (four percent); Gordon (two percent); and Villanueva and Fernando (one percent).
Aquino was also the leading presidential bet in the Visayas, receiving 44 percent of votes.
Villar was in second place with 26 percent; Estrada and Escudero, eight percent; De Castro, six percent; Legarda, four percent; Villanueva, two percent; and Teodoro and Gordon, one percent. Fernando and Madrigal again received zero votes.
In Mindanao, Aquino was picked by 37 percent of the respondents; followed by Villar and Estrada with 17 percent; Escudero, nine percent; De Castro, seven percent; Legarda, five percent; and Teodoro, three percent.
Gordon, Villanueva, Fernando and Madrigal obtained one percent each of the Mindanao votes.
Among the ABC class, Aquino received 24 percent; Villar, 19 percent; Escudero, 18 percent; Estrada, 11 percent; De Castro, eight percent; Legarda, four percent; Teodoro, Gordon and Villanueva, three percent; and Fernando and Madrigal had zero votes.
Among class D1, Aquino was favored by 36 percent; Villar, 20 percent; Escudero, 12 percent; Estrada, 11 percent; De Castro, seven percent; Teodoro, six percent; Legarda, four percent; and Gordon, Villanueva, Fernando and Madrigal with one percent each.
Among Class D2, 36 percent voted for Aquino, followed by Villar, 19 percent; Escudero, 12 percent; Estrada, 10 percent; De Castro, seven percent; Legarda and Teodoro, six percent; Villanueva, two percent; and Gordon and Fernando, one percent each. Madrigal got zero votes.
Among Class E or the masses, Aquino received 43 percent; Villar, 23 percent; De Castro, 16 percent; Estrada, nine percent; Escudero and Legarda, six percent; Teodoro and Gordon, two percent; and Villanueva, one percent. Fernando and Madrigal got zero votes.
Aquino was the favorite candidate among the respondents in the 18 to 35 age bracket, obtaining 35 percent of votes against Villar’s 20 percent; Escudero’s 12 percent and Estrada’s 11 percent.
The other presidential aspirants received less than 10 percent of votes.
Among the respondents aged 36 and above, 39 percent chose Aquino; 20 percent are for Villar; 11 percent for Escudero and 11 percent for Estrada.
The rest received less than 10 percent of votes.
In an eight-way race, the survey found that Aquino was still the leading presidential candidate with 37 percent of votes; followed by Villar with 19 percent.
Escudero and Estrada were statistically tied for third and fourth places with 11 percent each; followed by De Castro, seven percent.
Legarda and Teodoro were statistically tied for sixth and seventh places with six percent each; followed by Gordon with two percent.
In its survey for the vice presidential preference of Filipinos, SratPOLLS said Roxas was leading the race with 33 percent; followed by Escudero with 16 percent; Legarda, nine percent; De Castro, eight percent; Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, seven percent; Sen. Ramon Revilla Jr., six percent; Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, five percent; Sen. Francis Pangilinan, four percent; and Sen. Panfilo Lacson, three percent.
Other personalities included in the vice presidential survey were Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno and Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, who obtained two percent each; and Gordon and Madrigal with one percent each.
Meanwhile, the tandem of Aquino and Roxas received the highest votes of 65 percent.
They were followed by the teamup of Escudero-Legarda, 31 percent; De Castro-Teodoro, 26 percent; Legarda-Escudero, 25 percent; Villar-Estrada, 24 percent; Estrada-Binay, 22 percent; Villar-De Castro, 21 percent; Villar-Estrada, 20 percent; Villar-Escudero, 19 percent; Estrada-Escudero, 17 percent; Teodoro-Puno, 14 percent; and Villar-Sen. Pia Cayetano, 12 percent.
The StratPOLLS survey also found that a majority of Filipinos or 72 percent would vote for Cayetano in the senatorial election.
Cayetano was followed by Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, 64 percent; Muntinlupa Rep. Ruffy Biazon and Santiago, 59 percent each; Revilla, 58 percent; Drilon, 57 percent; Gordon, 55 percent; Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto Guingona III and Madrigal, 54 percent; businessman Joey de Venecia and former Sen. Ralph Recto, 53 percent; and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, 51 percent;
Former senator Serge Osmeña got 47 percent; former senator Tito Sotto, 42 percent; Ilocos Norte Gov. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Education Secretary Jesli Lapus, 39 percent; TV host Edu Manzano, 38 percent; former Cavite Rep. Gilbert Remulla, 37 percent; Akbayan Rep. Risa Hontiveros, 36 percent; Tourism Secretary Ace Durano, 35 percent; Grace Po-Llamanzares, 30 percent; Gabriela Rep. Liza Masa, 24 percent; Nacionalista Party spokesman Adel Tamano, 21 percent; and Bayan Muna Reps. Satur Ocampo and Teddy Casiño, 20 percent each.
2010 Presidential surveys
31 March 2010
BW-SWS March 19-22, 2010 Pre-Election Survey:
Aquino lead widens, as Estrada improves at Villar's expense;
Roxas maintains lead, while Binay improves;
Remulla edges Pimentel from circle of 12
Social Weather Stations
The BusinessWorld-SWS Pre-Election Survey of March 19-22, 2010 has the following new national scores in the Presidential race: Benigno Aquino III 37%, Manuel Villar Jr. 28%, Joseph Estrada 19%, Gilberto Teodoro Jr. 6%, Richard Gordon 3%, Eduardo Villanueva 2%, John Carlos De Los Reyes 0.3%, Jesus Nicanor Perlas 0.1%, Jamby Madrigal 0.04%, and undecided/others 5% [Chart 1, Table 1].
From the previous BW-SWS survey of February 24-28, 2010, Estrada gained 4 points, Aquino and Gordon gained 1 point each, Teodoro was steady, Villanueva lost 1 point, and Villar lost 6 points.
As a result, Aquino's lead widened from 2 to 9 over Villar, and narrowed from 21 to 18 over Estrada. Villar's lead over Estrada dropped from 19 to 9.
Vice-Presidential race
The new BW-SWS scores in the Vice-Presidential race are: Manuel Roxas 42%, Loren Legarda 25%, Jejomar Binay 21%, Bayani Fernando 3%, Eduardo Manzano 3%, Perfecto Yasay 1%, Dominador Chipeco Jr. 0.4%, Jose Sonza 0.3%, and undecided/others 5% [Chart 2, Table 2].
Compared to the February 24-28 BW-SWS survey of the vice-presidential race, Binay gained 4 points, Manzano and Yasay gained 1 point each, Fernando was steady, and Roxas and Legarda each lost 3 points.
As a result, Roxas's lead stayed at 17 points over Legarda, and narrowed from 28 to 21 over Binay. Legarda's lead over Binay dropped from 11 points to 4 points.
Senatorial race
From a BusinessWorld-approved list of 61 names, the twelve leaders in the Senatorial race include three from the Nacionalista Party, two each from Lakas-Kampi-CMD, the Liberal Party, and Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, one each from the Nationalist People's Coalition and People's Reform Party, and one independent.
The first two, namely 1. Ramon Bong Revilla, Jr. 53% (Lakas-Kampi-CMD) and 2. Jinggoy Estrada 52% (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino), are far ahead of the pack [Table 3].
The rest of the nine candidates who are clearly above 13th place are 3. Miriam Defensor Santiago 44% (People's Reform Party), 4. Pilar Juliana Cayetano 42% (Nacionalista Party), 5. Franklin Drilon 36% (Liberal Party), 6. Juan Ponce Enrile 35% (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino), 7. Vicente Sotto III 33% (Nationalist People's Coalition). 8-9. Ralph Recto (Liberal Party) and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (Nacionalista Party), 30% each.
These nine candidates, and Sergio Osmeña III, have always been in the winning circle since the SWS survey of December 5-10, 2009.
The last three seats are being contended by 10. Manuel Lapid 26% (Lakas-Kampi-CMD), 11. Sergio Osmeña III 25% (Independent), and 12. Gilbert Cesar Remulla 24% (Nacionalista Party), 13. Gwendolyn Pimentel 23% (PDP-Laban), and 14. Teofisto Guingona III 21% (Liberal Party).
Compared to February 24-28, the March 19-22 survey found Remulla (formerly 18-20th) displacing Pimentel (formerly 12th).
Not far behind are 15. Jose De Venecia III (19%) and 16. Rozzano Rufino Biazon (18%).
Farther away are 17. Sonia Roco (14%), 18-21. Alexander Lacson, Francisco Tatad, Emilio Mario Osmeña, and Danilo Lim (13% each), 22-24. Jose Apolinario Lozada, Jr., Ramon Mitra, Ana Theresia Hontiveros-Baraquel (11% each), and 25. Liza Maza (10%).
Presidential trends by area
The SWS March 19-22 survey shows Aquino now ahead in all the four major areas of the survey.
Compared to February 24-28, Aquino's gains of 4 points in the Visayas and 2 points in Balance Luzon were offset by his losses of 3 points in both Metro Manila and Mindanao, resulting in only a 1 point gain nationwide. He overtook Villar in Balance Luzon [Charts 3 to 6, Tables 4 to 7].
On the other hand, Villar's loss of 6 points nationwide was due to his losses of 7 points in both Balance Luzon and the Visayas, and 6 points in Mindanao, while remaining steady in Metro Manila.
Estrada gained 4 points nationwide by gaining 6 points in Mindanao, 5 points in Balance Luzon, and 4 points in Metro Manila, while remaining steady in the Visayas.
Teodoro gained 1 point each in Metro Manila, Visayas, and Mindanao, but lost 1 point in Balance Luzon, resulting in an unchanged score nationwide, compared to February 24-28.
Gordon gained 1 point nationwide by gaining 1 point each in Balance Luzon, the Visayas, and holding steady in Mindanao, despite losing 1 point in Metro Manila.
Villanueva's loss of 1 point nationwide was due to his losses of 1 point in both Visayas and Mindanao, despite gaining 1 point in Metro Manila and holding steady in Balance Luzon.
The vote percentages of De Los Reyes, Perlas, and Madrigal hardly changed from February 24-28.
In Metro Manila, the survey scores were: Aquino 39%, Estrada 27%, Villar 20%, Teodoro 5%, Villanueva 4%, Gordon 2%, and De Los Reyes 1%. None of the March 19-22 sample in Metro Manila chose Perlas and Madrigal; 3% were undecided [Chart 3, Table 4].
In Balance Luzon, the scores were: Aquino 35%, Villar 30%, Estrada 18%, Teodoro 5%, Gordon 4%, Villanueva 3%, De Los Reyes 0.2%, and Perlas 0.2%. None of the sample in Balance Luzon chose Madrigal; 5% were undecided [Chart 4, Table 5].
In the Visayas, the scores were: Aquino 46%, Villar 30%, Estrada 8%, Teodoro 7%, Gordon 2%, Villanueva 1%, and De Los Reyes 0.5%. None of the Visayas sample chose Madrigal and Perlas; 6% were undecided [Chart 5, Table 6].
In Mindanao, the scores were: Aquino 32%, Villar 27%, Estrada 26%, Teodoro 7%, Gordon 1%, Villanueva 1%, Perlas 0.2%, De Los Reyes 0.2%, and Madrigal 0.2%. Five percent were undecided [Chart 6, Table 7].
Presidential trends by class
The SWS March 19-22 survey has Aquino now leading in all classes, after overtaking Villar in class ABC and class E.
In class ABC, Aquino gained 15 points, Teodoro gained 5 points, Villanueva gained 2 points, De Los Reyes gained 1 point, Gordon was steady, and Villar lost 16 points, compared to February 24-28. As a result, Aquino overtook Villar with a 28-point lead. Villar's lead over Teodoro and Estrada was cut by 21 and 13 points, respectively [Chart 7, Table 8].
In class D or the masa, Estrada gained 5 points, Gordon gained 1 point, both Aquino and Teodoro were steady, Villanueva lost 1 point, and Villar lost 7 points. Thus, Aquino's lead widened from 4 to 11 points over Villar, but narrowed from 25 to 20 over Estrada. Villar's lead over Estrada dropped from 21 to 9 [Chart 8, Table 9].
In class E, Gordon gained 2 points, Aquino and Villanueva gained 1 point each, Estrada was steady, Teodoro and Perlas lost 1 point each, and Villar lost 3 points. As a result, the class E lead shifted from Villar to Aquino. The vote percentages of other candidates hardly changed compared to February 24-28 [Chart 9, Table 10].
The new class ABC scores are: Aquino 45%, Villar 17%, Teodoro 12%, Estrada 11%, Villanueva 3%, Gordon 2%, and De Los Reyes 1%. None in class ABC chose Madrigal and Perlas, while 8% were undecided.
In class D or the masa, the scores are: Aquino 38%, Villar 27%, Estrada 18%, Teodoro 6%, Gordon 3%, Villanueva 2%, De Los Reyes 0.3%, Perlas 0.1%, and Madrigal 0.1%. Five percent were undecided.
The new class E scores are: Aquino 33%, Villar 31%, Estrada 21%, Teodoro 4%, Gordon 3%, Villanueva 3%, and Perlas 0.1%. None in class E chose De Los Reyes and Madrigal, while 4% were undecided.
Survey question
The BW-SWS surveys of February 24-28 and March 19-22 asked the question: "Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE, BISE-PRESIDENTE, at mga SENADOR, ng PILIPINAS? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto." [If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, and SENATORS of the PHILIPPINES? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.] The respondents were allowed to fill in their ballot in private, and then deposit it in a container brought by the interviewer. All lists were in alphabetical order, and included nicknames, as practiced by the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) on election day.
The votes cast for disqualified candidate Vetellano "Dodong" S. Acosta (0.3%) were included in undecided/others. Since the COMELEC has not removed Acosta's name in the official ballot, neither did SWS remove it from the survey ballot, in order to simulate the voting experience.
In addition to those who refused to cast a ballot and those whose ballot either made no choice or chose more than one candidate, the "undecided" category of 5% in the presidential question includes a very small proportion (1.3%) of ballots marked by means other than shading, making them un-readable by an optical scanning machine.
In the surveys from December 2009 to January 2010, respondents were provided with the COMELEC lists of candidates, and gave their answers orally to the question, "Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE/BISE-PRESIDENTE/SENADOR ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon?" [Among the names found in this list, who will you probably vote for as PRESIDENT/VICE-PRESIDENT/SENATORS of the Philippines, if elections were held today?].
Survey Background
The March 2010 Social Weather Survey was conducted from March 19-22, 2010 using face-to-face interviews of 2,100 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 in Metro Manila and 600 each in Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±2.2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, and ±4% for Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao). The area estimates were weighted using Comelec data on registered voters as of January 2010 to obtain the national estimates.
The status of the three races for President, Vice-President, and Senator are commissioned items by BusinessWorld under the BW-SWS Partnership in 2010 Pre-Election Surveys, and released with exclusive first-print right to BusinessWorld.
SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations.
BW-SWS March 19-22, 2010 Pre-Election Survey:
Aquino lead widens, as Estrada improves at Villar's expense;
Roxas maintains lead, while Binay improves;
Remulla edges Pimentel from circle of 12
Social Weather Stations
The BusinessWorld-SWS Pre-Election Survey of March 19-22, 2010 has the following new national scores in the Presidential race: Benigno Aquino III 37%, Manuel Villar Jr. 28%, Joseph Estrada 19%, Gilberto Teodoro Jr. 6%, Richard Gordon 3%, Eduardo Villanueva 2%, John Carlos De Los Reyes 0.3%, Jesus Nicanor Perlas 0.1%, Jamby Madrigal 0.04%, and undecided/others 5% [Chart 1, Table 1].
From the previous BW-SWS survey of February 24-28, 2010, Estrada gained 4 points, Aquino and Gordon gained 1 point each, Teodoro was steady, Villanueva lost 1 point, and Villar lost 6 points.
As a result, Aquino's lead widened from 2 to 9 over Villar, and narrowed from 21 to 18 over Estrada. Villar's lead over Estrada dropped from 19 to 9.
Vice-Presidential race
The new BW-SWS scores in the Vice-Presidential race are: Manuel Roxas 42%, Loren Legarda 25%, Jejomar Binay 21%, Bayani Fernando 3%, Eduardo Manzano 3%, Perfecto Yasay 1%, Dominador Chipeco Jr. 0.4%, Jose Sonza 0.3%, and undecided/others 5% [Chart 2, Table 2].
Compared to the February 24-28 BW-SWS survey of the vice-presidential race, Binay gained 4 points, Manzano and Yasay gained 1 point each, Fernando was steady, and Roxas and Legarda each lost 3 points.
As a result, Roxas's lead stayed at 17 points over Legarda, and narrowed from 28 to 21 over Binay. Legarda's lead over Binay dropped from 11 points to 4 points.
Senatorial race
From a BusinessWorld-approved list of 61 names, the twelve leaders in the Senatorial race include three from the Nacionalista Party, two each from Lakas-Kampi-CMD, the Liberal Party, and Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, one each from the Nationalist People's Coalition and People's Reform Party, and one independent.
The first two, namely 1. Ramon Bong Revilla, Jr. 53% (Lakas-Kampi-CMD) and 2. Jinggoy Estrada 52% (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino), are far ahead of the pack [Table 3].
The rest of the nine candidates who are clearly above 13th place are 3. Miriam Defensor Santiago 44% (People's Reform Party), 4. Pilar Juliana Cayetano 42% (Nacionalista Party), 5. Franklin Drilon 36% (Liberal Party), 6. Juan Ponce Enrile 35% (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino), 7. Vicente Sotto III 33% (Nationalist People's Coalition). 8-9. Ralph Recto (Liberal Party) and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (Nacionalista Party), 30% each.
These nine candidates, and Sergio Osmeña III, have always been in the winning circle since the SWS survey of December 5-10, 2009.
The last three seats are being contended by 10. Manuel Lapid 26% (Lakas-Kampi-CMD), 11. Sergio Osmeña III 25% (Independent), and 12. Gilbert Cesar Remulla 24% (Nacionalista Party), 13. Gwendolyn Pimentel 23% (PDP-Laban), and 14. Teofisto Guingona III 21% (Liberal Party).
Compared to February 24-28, the March 19-22 survey found Remulla (formerly 18-20th) displacing Pimentel (formerly 12th).
Not far behind are 15. Jose De Venecia III (19%) and 16. Rozzano Rufino Biazon (18%).
Farther away are 17. Sonia Roco (14%), 18-21. Alexander Lacson, Francisco Tatad, Emilio Mario Osmeña, and Danilo Lim (13% each), 22-24. Jose Apolinario Lozada, Jr., Ramon Mitra, Ana Theresia Hontiveros-Baraquel (11% each), and 25. Liza Maza (10%).
Presidential trends by area
The SWS March 19-22 survey shows Aquino now ahead in all the four major areas of the survey.
Compared to February 24-28, Aquino's gains of 4 points in the Visayas and 2 points in Balance Luzon were offset by his losses of 3 points in both Metro Manila and Mindanao, resulting in only a 1 point gain nationwide. He overtook Villar in Balance Luzon [Charts 3 to 6, Tables 4 to 7].
On the other hand, Villar's loss of 6 points nationwide was due to his losses of 7 points in both Balance Luzon and the Visayas, and 6 points in Mindanao, while remaining steady in Metro Manila.
Estrada gained 4 points nationwide by gaining 6 points in Mindanao, 5 points in Balance Luzon, and 4 points in Metro Manila, while remaining steady in the Visayas.
Teodoro gained 1 point each in Metro Manila, Visayas, and Mindanao, but lost 1 point in Balance Luzon, resulting in an unchanged score nationwide, compared to February 24-28.
Gordon gained 1 point nationwide by gaining 1 point each in Balance Luzon, the Visayas, and holding steady in Mindanao, despite losing 1 point in Metro Manila.
Villanueva's loss of 1 point nationwide was due to his losses of 1 point in both Visayas and Mindanao, despite gaining 1 point in Metro Manila and holding steady in Balance Luzon.
The vote percentages of De Los Reyes, Perlas, and Madrigal hardly changed from February 24-28.
In Metro Manila, the survey scores were: Aquino 39%, Estrada 27%, Villar 20%, Teodoro 5%, Villanueva 4%, Gordon 2%, and De Los Reyes 1%. None of the March 19-22 sample in Metro Manila chose Perlas and Madrigal; 3% were undecided [Chart 3, Table 4].
In Balance Luzon, the scores were: Aquino 35%, Villar 30%, Estrada 18%, Teodoro 5%, Gordon 4%, Villanueva 3%, De Los Reyes 0.2%, and Perlas 0.2%. None of the sample in Balance Luzon chose Madrigal; 5% were undecided [Chart 4, Table 5].
In the Visayas, the scores were: Aquino 46%, Villar 30%, Estrada 8%, Teodoro 7%, Gordon 2%, Villanueva 1%, and De Los Reyes 0.5%. None of the Visayas sample chose Madrigal and Perlas; 6% were undecided [Chart 5, Table 6].
In Mindanao, the scores were: Aquino 32%, Villar 27%, Estrada 26%, Teodoro 7%, Gordon 1%, Villanueva 1%, Perlas 0.2%, De Los Reyes 0.2%, and Madrigal 0.2%. Five percent were undecided [Chart 6, Table 7].
Presidential trends by class
The SWS March 19-22 survey has Aquino now leading in all classes, after overtaking Villar in class ABC and class E.
In class ABC, Aquino gained 15 points, Teodoro gained 5 points, Villanueva gained 2 points, De Los Reyes gained 1 point, Gordon was steady, and Villar lost 16 points, compared to February 24-28. As a result, Aquino overtook Villar with a 28-point lead. Villar's lead over Teodoro and Estrada was cut by 21 and 13 points, respectively [Chart 7, Table 8].
In class D or the masa, Estrada gained 5 points, Gordon gained 1 point, both Aquino and Teodoro were steady, Villanueva lost 1 point, and Villar lost 7 points. Thus, Aquino's lead widened from 4 to 11 points over Villar, but narrowed from 25 to 20 over Estrada. Villar's lead over Estrada dropped from 21 to 9 [Chart 8, Table 9].
In class E, Gordon gained 2 points, Aquino and Villanueva gained 1 point each, Estrada was steady, Teodoro and Perlas lost 1 point each, and Villar lost 3 points. As a result, the class E lead shifted from Villar to Aquino. The vote percentages of other candidates hardly changed compared to February 24-28 [Chart 9, Table 10].
The new class ABC scores are: Aquino 45%, Villar 17%, Teodoro 12%, Estrada 11%, Villanueva 3%, Gordon 2%, and De Los Reyes 1%. None in class ABC chose Madrigal and Perlas, while 8% were undecided.
In class D or the masa, the scores are: Aquino 38%, Villar 27%, Estrada 18%, Teodoro 6%, Gordon 3%, Villanueva 2%, De Los Reyes 0.3%, Perlas 0.1%, and Madrigal 0.1%. Five percent were undecided.
The new class E scores are: Aquino 33%, Villar 31%, Estrada 21%, Teodoro 4%, Gordon 3%, Villanueva 3%, and Perlas 0.1%. None in class E chose De Los Reyes and Madrigal, while 4% were undecided.
Survey question
The BW-SWS surveys of February 24-28 and March 19-22 asked the question: "Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE, BISE-PRESIDENTE, at mga SENADOR, ng PILIPINAS? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto." [If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, and SENATORS of the PHILIPPINES? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.] The respondents were allowed to fill in their ballot in private, and then deposit it in a container brought by the interviewer. All lists were in alphabetical order, and included nicknames, as practiced by the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) on election day.
The votes cast for disqualified candidate Vetellano "Dodong" S. Acosta (0.3%) were included in undecided/others. Since the COMELEC has not removed Acosta's name in the official ballot, neither did SWS remove it from the survey ballot, in order to simulate the voting experience.
In addition to those who refused to cast a ballot and those whose ballot either made no choice or chose more than one candidate, the "undecided" category of 5% in the presidential question includes a very small proportion (1.3%) of ballots marked by means other than shading, making them un-readable by an optical scanning machine.
In the surveys from December 2009 to January 2010, respondents were provided with the COMELEC lists of candidates, and gave their answers orally to the question, "Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE/BISE-PRESIDENTE/SENADOR ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon?" [Among the names found in this list, who will you probably vote for as PRESIDENT/VICE-PRESIDENT/SENATORS of the Philippines, if elections were held today?].
Survey Background
The March 2010 Social Weather Survey was conducted from March 19-22, 2010 using face-to-face interviews of 2,100 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 in Metro Manila and 600 each in Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±2.2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, and ±4% for Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao). The area estimates were weighted using Comelec data on registered voters as of January 2010 to obtain the national estimates.
The status of the three races for President, Vice-President, and Senator are commissioned items by BusinessWorld under the BW-SWS Partnership in 2010 Pre-Election Surveys, and released with exclusive first-print right to BusinessWorld.
SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations.
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